Tariffs, SaaS, and Open Source: Towards a New Technological Decoupling
Trade and geopolitical tensions between the US, Europe, and Asia are no longer limited to traditional industries. The digital sector is now at the forefront, with structural consequences for investment, economic models, and technological dependencies. In this context, tariffs — real or anticipated — are becoming catalysts for change, forcing the European tech ecosystem to rethink its strategy.
The Domino Effect of U.S. Retrenchment
As U.S. authorities increasingly shield their domestic market and national champions, American investors are concentrating their capital on low-risk, low-exposure projects. This trend is already visible in a decline in transatlantic deal flow, particularly at the early and growth stages.
For European investors, this contraction of U.S. capital inflows opens a window. But it’s a double-edged sword: it requires taking more risk on local technologies that are often less mature or underfunded. This forced rebalancing could, over time, favor the emergence of more autonomous regional dynamics.
SaaS Price Inflation: An Inevitable Consequence
In this tense context, the SaaS economy — dominated by U.S. providers — is directly impacted. Two forces are converging toward price increases:
- Potential EU retaliatory measures, such as digital tariffs or market access restrictions.
- Price adjustments by U.S. providers, who may raise international rates to offset declining volumes or the increased complexity of operating across fragmented markets.
In both scenarios, European companies could find themselves trapped in an expensive dependency model, with limited bargaining power and a lack of pricing transparency.
Open Source as a Strategic Model
This environment is driving companies and ecosystems to seek more sustainable alternatives. Open source is making a comeback — not just for technical reasons, but as a strategic choice:
- Fewer dependencies: open technologies allow greater control over infrastructure and product roadmaps.
- Increased interoperability: they facilitate integration in hybrid and regulated environments.
- Digital sovereignty: they offer a concrete path to technological autonomy for Europe.
These benefits are no longer theoretical. They are becoming increasingly tangible, backed by a new generation of investors.
Investment Theses Are Evolving
Funds like Serena, Red River West, and Runa Capital are now fully integrating open source into their investment theses. This shift is significant: it reflects the realization that closed, centralized, and geography-agnostic models are less resilient in a fragmented world.
These funds are betting on hybrid models, where value is created as much by community as by product performance, and where regulatory alignment becomes a competitive advantage.
Europe at a Crossroads
Europe has long suffered from being caught in between — neither fully sovereign nor fully aligned. But the new geopolitical context creates room for political, technological, and economic realignment.
Investing in open technologies, supporting local ecosystems, and shaping European standards is no longer idealism — it’s a strategy for resilience, economic efficiency, and global positioning.
Conclusion: A Moment to Seize
Technological decoupling, if understood correctly, can be an opportunity for Europe. It calls for a paradigm shift — literally and figuratively: moving away from passive consumption models, investing in the code economy, and building the conditions for long-term trust. Open source is not an alternative — it may well be our best option.
